United States intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s ruling establishment remains largely intact and firmly in control of the country, despite nearly two weeks of relentless bombardment by U.S. and Israeli forces.
According to a Reuters report citing multiple sources familiar with classified findings, the strikes have not significantly weakened Tehran’s grip on power.
The assessment comes amid mounting international concern over the escalating conflict and its ripple effects on the global economy, particularly surging oil prices that have rattled energy markets worldwide.
According to three sources with direct knowledge of U.S. intelligence reporting, the clerical regime in Tehran is not at immediate risk of collapse even after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader during the early phase of the military campaign.
A senior source familiar with the intelligence reports disclosed that several assessments compiled by U.S. agencies point to the same conclusion.
“A multitude of intelligence reports provide consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger of collapse and retains control of the Iranian public,” the source said.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the intelligence findings, added that the most recent report evaluating the stability of Iran’s leadership was completed only a few days ago.
The reports suggest that despite sustained strikes on strategic and political targets, the Iranian government still maintains command of the country’s security structure and political institutions.
The war, which began with coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, has already become the largest U.S. military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Facing mounting political pressure over the conflict and its economic repercussions, U.S. President Donald Trump recently indicated that Washington may soon bring the military operation to a close.
Trump hinted that the campaign could end “soon,” as global oil prices continue to surge, creating domestic political pressure in the United States.
However, analysts say ending the war may prove complicated if Iran’s ruling clerical leadership remains firmly entrenched.
The latest intelligence assessments highlight the surprising cohesion within Iran’s leadership structure even after the killing of its longtime supreme leader.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28 during the first wave of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, marking one of the most dramatic moments of the conflict.
Despite his death, intelligence officials say Iran’s political and military institutions have continued to function without major signs of internal collapse.
Dozens of senior government officials and top commanders from the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have also been killed in the strikes.
The IRGC is widely regarded as the backbone of Iran’s security apparatus and a powerful paramilitary force that controls large sections of the country’s economy and political influence.
Yet intelligence reports suggest the organisation continues to operate effectively and remains loyal to the ruling establishment.
Following Khamenei’s death, Iran’s Assembly of Experts, a powerful council of senior Shiite clerics responsible for appointing the country’s supreme leader, moved swiftly to stabilise the leadership structure.
Earlier this week, the clerical body declared Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late leader, as the new supreme leader of Iran.
Even Israeli officials involved in the war effort have privately acknowledged that there is no certainty the ongoing military campaign will lead to the collapse of Iran’s clerical government.
A senior Israeli official speaking to Reuters said closed-door discussions within Israel’s leadership have acknowledged that the outcome remains uncertain.
Sources familiar with intelligence briefings stressed that the situation inside Iran remains fluid and could change depending on how the conflict evolves.
Both the Central Intelligence Agency and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the classified assessments.
Similarly, the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding the intelligence reports.
Since the start of the war, U.S. and Israeli forces have targeted a broad range of Iranian assets including air defence systems, nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and senior political and military leaders.
However, the objectives of the military campaign have appeared to shift over time.
When announcing the start of the U.S. operation, Trump publicly urged the Iranian population to overthrow their government.
“Iranians should take over your government,” the president said at the time.
But senior administration officials have since walked back those comments, insisting that regime change was never the official objective of the military campaign.
Despite the strikes eliminating multiple senior officials, U.S. intelligence assessments say Iran’s interim leadership structure remains firmly in control.
According to one source familiar with internal discussions, the collapse of the Iranian regime would likely require a full-scale ground offensive.
Such an operation could create conditions that might allow Iranian civilians to protest safely in the streets without fear of violent repression.
However, launching a ground invasion of Iran would represent a massive escalation of the conflict.
The Trump administration has not ruled out the possibility of deploying U.S. troops to Iran if the war intensifies.
In a parallel development, Iranian Kurdish militant groups have explored the possibility of launching attacks inside Iran with backing from the United States.
According to earlier reports by Reuters, Kurdish militias based in neighbouring Iraq held discussions with U.S. officials about potential operations against Iranian security forces in western Iran.
Such an incursion could place additional pressure on Iranian security services and potentially create space for internal uprisings.
Abdullah Mohtadi, the leader of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, said Kurdish groups are prepared to challenge the Iranian government if Washington provides military support.
Mohtadi said in an interview that the parties are highly organised inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive U.S. support
He claimed Kurdish networks inside Iran have already begun observing signs of weakness among Iranian security forces.
According to Mohtadi, reports from Kurdish regions inside Iran suggest that some IRGC units and security forces have abandoned bases due to fear of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.
“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.
Despite these claims, recent U.S. intelligence assessments cast serious doubt on the ability of Kurdish militant groups to sustain a prolonged fight against Iranian security forces.
Two sources familiar with the intelligence reports said analysts believe the Kurdish factions lack the necessary firepower and manpower required for a successful insurgency.
Officials also warned that any armed incursion could trigger wider regional instability.
The Kurdistan Regional Government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where many Iranian Kurdish groups are based, has not responded to requests for comment.
Sources familiar with discussions in Washington said Kurdish groups have recently asked senior U.S. officials and lawmakers for weapons, armored vehicles, and other military equipment.
However, Trump publicly dismissed the idea over the weekend.
Speaking on Saturday, the U.S. president said he had ruled out allowing Iranian Kurdish militias to cross into Iran as part of the war effort.